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An extremely advanced Alien intelligence, or God, or a super-powerful psychological program has the ability to predict your thoughts and actions days in advance. He (or it) has a proven track record of being 100% correct. You are now in the position of the subject of Newcomb's Paradox. A TV news program has provided the facilities and put up a large sum of money; all you have to do is abide by the conditions of the experiment. On a table in front of you are two boxes: A and B. Box A either contains a million dollars or is empty. Box B contains a thousand dollars. You cannot see inside it. Of your own free will you must choose either to take Box A only [A] or take Box A and Box B [A] + [B] Those are the only options. The catch is this: two days ago, the Alien predicted what you would choose. It decided whether to put the million dollars in box A. If he predicted that you would take only box A, he put the million dollars in it. If he foresaw your taking both boxes, he left box A empty. Your only motive is leaving the experiment with as much money as possible. You are not so wealthy that money means nothing. The thousand dollars in box B is a lot of money to you. The million dollars is a fortune. The conditions of the test have been and will be enforced scrupulously. You need entertain no doubts that box B contains the $1,000. But box A might turn out to contain the $1 million or may turn out to contain nothing at all. No one is trying to trick you on that score. Trusted friends of absolutely guaranteed integrity and authority were present at the time that the Alien either did or did not place the million in Box A, and verified that it obeyed the rules. In addition, the Alien's act was caught on national television and was seen by everyone but you.
A B
_________________ _________
| | | |
| $1,000,000 (?) | | $1000 |
|_________________| |_________|
You will be prevented from making any attempt to circumvent the rules. Armed guards will prevent nihilist acts like not taking any box. Nor can you cheat by basing your decision on something other than your own mental processes. You can't decide on the basis of a coin toss or whether the number of shares traded that day is odd or even. You have to analyze the situation and decide on the most profitable of the two options. Of course, the Alien has anticipated your analysis. What should you do---take boxes AB or just box A? Argument 1: Logically, the sum of the money in both boxes is greater than the money in just one box. Therefore, you should take both boxes. Argument 2: It will, of course, turn out that the Alien's prediction is correct. Therefore if you take both boxes, Box A will turn out to be empty, so you should take Box A alone. ******* Note: I think that anyone who is up to speed in current science and epistemology must obtain the correct answer.******* |